Nick Rogers
The San Diego housing market has been full of surprises this year, and the latest numbers reveal some important trends. Despite what you might be hearing, we’re not heading for a crash. In fact, there are real opportunities for both buyers and sellers right now. Whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, or just curious about your home’s value, understanding today’s market can help you make smart moves.
I’ve pulled together the latest data to give you the real picture of what’s happening out there. The short version is that buyers have more choices than last year, mortgage rates are the best we’ve seen in months, and while homes are taking a bit longer to sell, there’s still plenty of activity, especially in certain price ranges. Here’s what you need to know:
Market overview:
Inventory
● Over 6,300 homes for sale now — 43% more than last year but still below pre-2008 peaks
● Pre-COVID average was about 7,100 homes — roughly 11% higher than today
● Many homeowners are “locked in” with ultra-low mortgage rates from 2020-2022, keeping them from selling
Demand
● About 1,850 pending sales — up slightly from last year but about three-quarters lower than pre-COVID averages
● Mortgage rates holding around 6.6% (lowest since October 2024) and could drop further, potentially boosting buyer activity
Expected Market Time (EMT)
● 103 days to sell on average (vs. 74 days last year)
● Detached homes: 95 days
● Condos/townhomes: 122 days
Are Prices Going to Crash?
● Short answer: No. Major price drops need three things: high supply, lots of distressed sales (foreclosures/short sales), and weak demand
● We only have weak demand right now, the other two factors aren’t present
● Less than 1% of sales are distressed properties, with only 35 such homes on the market
Luxury Market (Over $2M)
● Inventory: About 1,100 luxury listings — up 20% from last year
● Demand: 211 pending sales — up 23% from last year
● Average selling time:
○ $2M–$4M: 128 days (improving from 152)
○ $4M–$6M: 197 days (improving from 236)
○ Over $6M: 438 days (slightly up from 418)
● Good news: Luxury demand is strengthening, especially in the $2M–$6M range
Key Takeaways for Clients
Buyers: Now’s the time to explore your options with more inventory available. If rates dip below 6.5% and stay there, expect competition to heat up quickly.
Sellers: Price strategically from day one to avoid extended market time. This is especially crucial for condos/townhomes and ultra-luxury properties over $6M.
Luxury Sellers ($2M–$6M): Market conditions are improving — now may be a better time to list than earlier this year.
Bottom Line: No crash on the horizon. Smart pricing and strategic timing remain your best tools in this balanced market.
Questions about what this means for your specific situation? Let’s talk about your real estate goals and how to navigate this market successfully.